After a horrific first leg at Stamford Bridge last week it will be Tottenham’s turn to play host in their EFL Cup semi-final tie. Their loss against the Blues in the first leg was their first loss in five matches across all competitions and was a real momentum killer after some decent form in the EPL the last couple of months. Conte’s men are now left with the mammoth task of trying to overcome a two goal deficit if they are to book themselves a spot at Wembley at the end of February. On the positive side, Spurs have had no trouble finding the net on their home turf as of late and have scored at least two goals in their last four competitive clashes. This includes three goals in their FA Cup clash against Morecambe on Thursday and two goals against the Hammers in their EFL Cup quarter-final clash last month. If they are able to keep up this trend they will give themselves a fighting chance, but with a record of two losses and one draw against the Blues already this season the odds are not in their favour and they will need to put in a huge performance on Wednesday to progress further in the competition. Furthermore, in the history of the EFL Cup only one team has reached the final after losing the first leg of the semi-final by more than one goal (Aston Villa in 1993/94) and this certainly does not help Spurs’ cause.
With two goals in the bag Thomas Tuchel’s men are in the driving seat heading into the second leg. They have the simple task of ensuring that they don’t concede more than a goal in the match, but even if they do, their powerful attacks are more than capable of making up the deficit. Saturday was another showcase of exactly how dangerous their attack can be when they put five past Chesterfield in their FA Cup clash, while all of their EFL Cup matches have seen them find the back of the net at least once. Even if Spurs managed to draw level in the tie the Blues should still fancy their chances at progressing to the final as they have already won two of their EFL Cup fixtures this season when the match has gone to penalties. Somehow I don’t expect Chelsea to take any chances and I can easily see them sealing their place in the final during regulation time. Considering they have only failed to find the net once in their last ten away matches across all leagues and considering they haven’t lost by a deficit of more than one goal the entire season across all leagues, it’s going to take a really bad performance from the Blues to deny themselves a spot in the EFL Cup final.
The Blues have completed dominated the clashes between the two sides this season with wins in their last two meetings both by a margin of at least two goals. Chelsea have won three out of the last five competitive matches, while Spurs have one won and there has been one draw. Interestingly Spurs do seem to have some form at home when taking on Chelsea in cup ties with a win against them in the EFL Cup quarter-final last season as well as a victory in the EFL Cup semi-final back in the 2018/19 season. However, both of these wins were by a narrow margin and with a two goal deficit to make up they will certainly have their work cut out for them.
Prediction
For me Chelsea have done most of the work required to bag their spot in the final and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them only focusing on their defensive efforts in this match. If Spurs do manage to find the back of the net on Wednesday I don’t expect it to be more than once, but if that somehow does happen you can be sure the Blues will hit back and ensure that they do not lose the match by more than one goal. Four of the last five competitive matches between the teams have seen fewer than 2.5 goals which includes their last two clashes in the EFL Cup. With Chelsea already possessing a two goal lead in the tie one would think that they would play more cautiously and I feel it’s worth backing under 2.5 goals in the match which is available at just under even money. My gut feeling tells me that we may even see a bore draw in this game, but there is also a chance that Chelsea might just put the final nail in the coffin late in the game and win by a narrow margin. For that reason I really like the Chelsea double chance combined with under 2.5 goals in the match which is available at around 2.50. For goalscorers I am not too confident but I am willing to have a crack at Kai Havertz to score in the match at very decent odds of 4.10. The German has scored a goal in each of his last two EFL Cup appearances and there is great value available at backing him to make it three goals in three appearances.
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