Brighton vs. Chelsea, EPL Round 24, 18 January 22:00
It was a frustrating night for the Seagulls on Friday who only managed to pick up a single point in their M23 Derby clash with Crystal Palace. Despite a number of chances in the first half which included a missed penalty, they would only get on the scoreboard thanks to an own goal by the visitors in the last five minutes of the match. Their point on Friday keeps them in ninth place on the table and they are now undefeated in their last four EPL matches. Despite the disappointing result against Palace it has still been a really good month for Brighton and they will look to keep things tight and perhaps squeeze a point out of their next clash against the Blues. Their defense may be leaking slightly more goals this year, but they have still only conceded five goals across their last five EPL fixtures and a total of 21 goals all season. This makes them the sixth best side defensively and what’s even more positive for Graham Potter’s men is the fact that they have been able to force a draw or win after conceding in their last four matches. Goalscoring has been slow for his side this season but it’s starting to pick up ever so slightly and if their attack continues the way they are and a few other results go their way they could very well make up the seven points between themselves and the Top 5. With only three losses the entire season at the Amex the Seagulls will certainly fancy their chances at forcing a stalemate against a rusty Chelsea team that are yet to win an EPL game this year.
The Blues did a great job of fending off the Citizens for three quarters of the match on Saturday but unfortunately their great defensive efforts were not rewarded after De Bruyne was able to nail a goal from just outside the box in the 70th minute. Their loss against City has sent them down to third place on the table with 43 points and it’s starting to look very unlikely that they will be able to catch Pep’s men in the race for the EPL title. It’s been a difficult year for the Blues who are now three games without a win and if they don’t get their attack up to par they may just risk slipping even further down the table and out of the Top 4. With only five goals conceded in their last five matches which included opponents like Liverpool and Man City it’s clear that their defense is still doing a decent job, but instead it’s been their attack that has let them down. Up until December their goal average was well over two goals per match but it’s now starting to slowly go down after each round. Perhaps it’s got to do with the recent Covid disruptions or maybe even all the drama surrounding one of their top strikers, but whatever the reason may be it’s important that Tuchel sorts it out before it ends up undoing all the hard work from the first half of the season. The Blues already gave up points against the Seagulls three weeks ago and it’s important that they make up for this with a win on Tuesday night.
Chelsea leads the head-to-head between the teams in the last five EPL encounters with two wins, while the other three matches all ended in a draw. The most recent of these was of course three weeks ago when the teams met at Stamford Bridge. The last clash at the Amex was in the 2020/21 season and saw Chelsea easing to a 3-1 win. The Seagulls may have drawn their last two league clashes against the Blues but it certainly counts as positive results considering the fact that they have never picked up a league win against them.
Prediction
The bookies have priced Chelsea as clear favorites in this one and although there is a decent price of 1.77 on offer for an away win I am not interested in it. Chelsea’s performances so far this year have not been up to scratch and I will need to see some better attacking football from them before I will be confident to back them for a win. Although it took Brighton nearly 90 minutes to finally get on the scoreboard against Palace their attack did look very promising throughout the game and in my eyes they were unlucky not to score sooner. Backing them on the double chance for this clash at over even money looks a lot more attractive to me based on their performance on Friday and also considering that they managed to force a draw against the Blues just three weeks ago. With the exception of Manchester City, Brighton haven’t conceded more than a goal at home since August last year and I believe they can restrict Tuchel’s men enough to force a draw or maybe even get lucky and sneak a win. With Chelsea’s attack still rusty and Brighton keeping things tight at the Amex I am also liking Under 2.5 Goals for this one and with only one match in the last five between the teams seeing more than 2.5 goals I feel like we should be in for another low-scoring game. I am not too keen on backing any goalscorers in this match since I am not expecting many goals but I will have a small nibble on Lukaku to score a goal in the match. The Belgian nearly scored against City and after all the drama in the media he might just be out to prove a point in the match.
BetOlimp Best Bets
Total Goals: Total 2.5 under – 1.80
Double Chance: Brighton or Draw – 2.12
Anytime Goalscorer: Romelu Lukaku – 2.60