AC Milan
It’s been a disappointing UCL Group Stage for Stefano Pioli’s men this season and as a result they have left themselves an enormous challenge in order to secure qualification for the Round of 16. Right now the Italians sit in third place in Group B with just four points and have a record of one win, one draw and three losses. This means that nothing less than a win against Liverpool will give them a chance at qualification, but they will also need the match between Porto and Atletico Madrid to preferably end in a draw to avoid things going down to goal difference. Milan’s attack has been bitterly disappointing this campaign and they are averaging just one goal per match in the group stage. They are going to need to put in the performance of their life against one of the top teams in the league otherwise it’s going to be the end of the Champions League for them this season. The fact that AC Milan came up short when these two sides met in Liverpool in the opening match of the UCL Group Stage doesn’t really help their cause, but they will hope that with home advantage they can at least spark a different result this time around.
After losing their opening group match 3-2 to Liverpool, Madrid hosted Atletico Madrid in Round 2. Despite leading 1-0 for the majority of the match they would go on to lose 2-1 thanks to an 87th minute goal by Antoine Griezmann and a Luis Suarez winner deep into injury time. In Round 3 they took on Porto in Portugal in what would turn out to be a very disappointing performance. The attack would only manage four attempts on goal in the entire match and after conceding in the 65th minute they would go on to lose 1-0, leaving Portugal with no points. A couple of weeks later in Round 4 it was Milan’s turn to host Porto and despite conceding very early on they managed to pick up their first point of the campaign thanks to an own goal by the visitors which resulted in the match ending 1-1.
In their penultimate clash of the UCL Group Stage Milan were in Spain to take on Atletico Madrid. After a very poor group stage they went into the match as complete underdogs, but managed to hold off the Atletico attack throughout the match. Milan left the hosts stunned after Junior Messias scored a header off a cleverly lobbed pass by Franck Kessie in the 87th minute giving the visitors a 1-0 victory and a valuable three points.
Liverpool
It’s been a perfect UCL Group Stage for the Reds with five wins from five matches and it comes as no surprise that they have guaranteed themselves qualification and a top spot in Group B. Their attack has been just as impressive as it has been in the EPL and they have managed to score 15 goals in their group stage with an average of three goals per match. Their defense has also done than their bit and have only let in five goals during the group stage, with back-to-back clean sheets in their last two matches. With Round of 16 qualification already secured and Klopp wanting to focus on their EPL campaign, I expect the German manager to rest a number of his key players for their trip to Italy which could potentially result in their perfect group stage record being spoiled. Liverpool have been priced up as underdogs for this match which gives the impression that the bookies certainly don’t believe that the Reds will be taking this match too seriously.
Liverpool took on Milan in Round 1 of the group stage at Anfield in a match that saw five goals and the Reds coming back after trailing 2-1 to win the match 3-2. In Round 2 they defeated Porto 5-1 in Portugal in a dominating performance that saw both Salah and Firmino bagging a double. The Reds then headed off to Spain for their Round 3 clash against Atletico Madrid which proved to be a tight clash. After the first half ended with the scores tied at 2-2 it was ultimately an Atletico Madrid red card that made the difference and helped the Reds to a narrow 3-2 victory. Salah was again the man for Liverpool with a double which included the match-winning penalty in the 78th minute. Two weeks later the Reds took on Atletico Madrid again in Round 4 at Anfield and were again helped by an Atletico Madrid red card. Two first half goals by Diogo Jota and Sadio Mane would prove to be enough to give the Reds a 2-0 victory.
In Round 5 Liverpool hosted Porto at Anfield and picked up another three points with a 2-0 win. The defense completely shut down the visitors and did an excellent job of limiting them to just one attempt on goal throughout the entire match. Thiago and Salah would be the goalscorers for the Reds in what would turn out to be an easy win for the hosts.
Prediction
To be quite honest I don’t see much happening in this match and I think we are in for a low-scoring affair. With Liverpool resting a number of their key players I don’t see them scoring many goals and AC Milan have been very average on their attack during the UCL and I am not expecting many goals from them either. The hosts might be able to sneak a goal past the Liverpool defense, but I would be quite surprised if they do considering the quality of Liverpool’s defense in the UCL. I think the best value for this match will be to back the draw which is available at around 3.80. A victory is simply not that important for the Reds right now, while AC Milan have been struggling to put together any convincing wins. AC Milan certainly have all to play for but based on their other performances during this group stage I find it hard to back them to win this match. I also like the price of under 2.5 goals which is available at over even money. I’m not very confident about backing any goalscorers in this match because I am not expecting many goals, but the best value looks to be Braham Diaz for Milan since they seem to be the more likely team to score and he is their top scorer in the UCL.
BetOlimp Best Bets
Draw – 3.83
Total Goals: under 2.5 – 2.38
Anytime Goalscorer: Brahim Diaz – 2.95