After some controversy surrounding false-positive Covid tests in the Liverpool camp that resulted in the postponement of the first leg, Klopp’s men are finally ready to lock horns with Arsenal for their EFL Cup semi-final clash. Earlier in the week the Reds were in action in the FA Cup against League One side Shrewsbury where they suffered an early scare after going down 1-0 early in the first half. Order would however be restored fairly quickly by youngster Kaide Gordon, while a brace by Fabinho and a goal by Firmino ensured a comfortable 4-1 victory. Although their FA Cup win came against much weaker opposition it certainly provided a morale boost for the Reds who have failed to pick up a win in their last three EPL matches. It’s worth noting though that all three of those matches took place away from home for the Merseysiders and when playing at Anfield this season they have proven to be a very difficult side to beat. The Reds have now won their last eight consecutive matches on home turf across all competitions and they have only failed to score less than two goals in one of those matches. This will certainly hold well for Liverpool as they look to establish a healthy lead that they can carry into the second leg.
Arteta’s army has been severely thinned as of late with a number of players ruled out of action due to AFCON, injuries or Covid. The Gunners are without the likes of Aubameyang, Elneny and Pepe, while Smith-Rowe also remains questionable for Thursday night’s clash. The negative impact their absence is having on the team showed last Sunday when they were knocked out of the FA Cup at the hands of Championship side Nottingham Forrest. Up until their FA Cup loss there was a lot of momentum in the Arsenal camp following a classy performance at the Emirates against Manchester City that saw them losing in the final moments of the match. Prior to that they had also won their last five matches across all competitions and netted a whopping 19 goals in the process. Furthermore, their path to the EFL Cup semi-final has been really impressive with 16 goals in their four matches while only conceding one goal. The Gunners would have most certainly preferred playing the first leg at the Emirates and would have rightly been frustrated at the match being postponed, but if they can gain the upper hand or even just force a stalemate at Anfield it will certainly ease the pressure heading into the second leg. With so many of their players missing and Liverpool’s fine form at Anfield it’s going to be no easy task, but it’s important to remember that the Reds are also without number of their top players including Sane and Salah due to AFCON. We saw against Manchester City what the Gunners are capable of and if they can pull off another performance like this against Liverpool they might just be able to shock the Reds and secure first leg advantage.
Liverpool narrowly leads the head-to-head in the last five clashes between the two sides with three wins, while Arsenal have picked up two wins. Interestingly all of Liverpool’s wins have been in the EPL, while Arsenal appear to be more successful against the Reds in other competitions. Their most recent win against Liverpool was at Anfield last season where they won on penalties in the EFL Cup quarter-finals and they also managed a win on penalties when they challenged the Reds for the Community Shield that same season.
Prediction
With both teams missing so many of their key players it’s not easy predicting a winner for this one, but I do feel that Liverpool have the edge here. We got to see on the weekend that there is a lot of depth in Klopp’s camp when his side netted four goals in their FA Cup clash, while the Gunners struggled with all the disruptions to their squad and subsequently got eliminated from the FA Cup. Anfield has also been a real fortress for the Reds this season and they have already given the Gunners a 4-0 hiding at the venue this season so a bet on a Liverpool win at just over even money looks like the right play to me. I am also not very confident that Arsenal will be able to keep the game tight and I expect Liverpool to come out firing from the get go. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a goal or two from the home team before half-time and I am willing to have a stab at Liverpool to lead at half-time and to win the match at odds of around 3.00. Lastly, there is a huge price available on Fabinho to score a goal in the match and I reckon an opportunity to back the Brazilian to score at that price should not be passed up after his double on Sunday in the FA Cup.
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